Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 59

New York Jets 35 – Green Bay Packers 30

(3:20) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to GB 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-17-C.Peake.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.06 EP
78% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model