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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2018-12-16 · 20:20 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

PHI
32.8%
LA
67.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Jared Goff (LA): +0.213 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
LA 28
Projected margin: LA by 5 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

PHI

Jordan Hicks LB Out Calf
Timmy Jernigan DT Out Back
Sidney Jones CB Out Hamstring
Isaac Seumalo G Out Pectoral
Carson Wentz QB Doubtful Back
Michael Bennett DE Questionable Foot
Shelton Gibson WR Questionable Wrist
Avonte Maddox S Questionable Ankle

LA

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 30
–
LA 23

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:41 FG PHI (8:41) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 3 – LA 0
  • Q1 01:21 TD LA (1:21) 30-T.Gurley left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – LA 6
  • Q2 12:05 FG PHI (12:05) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 6 – LA 7
  • Q2 04:41 FG LA (4:41) 4-G.Zuerlein 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. PHI 6 – LA 10
  • Q2 01:12 TD PHI (1:12) (Shotgun) 33-J.Adams up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 12 – LA 10
  • Q2 00:04 FG LA (:04) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. PHI 13 – LA 13
  • Q3 10:34 TD PHI (10:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-W.Smallwood up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 19 – LA 13
  • Q3 03:17 FG PHI (3:17) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 23 – LA 13
  • Q3 01:39 TD PHI (1:39) (Shotgun) 28-W.Smallwood up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 29 – LA 13
  • Q4 09:28 FG LA (9:28) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. PHI 30 – LA 16
  • Q4 04:10 TD LA (4:10) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 30 – LA 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:37) 6-J.Hekker punts 65 yards to PHI 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 24 for 13 yards (53-J.Lawler).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 70%

    (8:41) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%

    (12:05) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 30%

    (9:38) (Shotgun) 33-J.Adams up the middle to LA 49 for no gain (58-C.Littleton; 43-J.Johnson).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 19 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 87%

    (4:41) 4-G.Zuerlein 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

    (:04) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (12:49) 1-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to LA 10, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-J.Natson to LA 5 for -5 yards (36-De.Hall).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:23) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to PHI 41, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (9:16) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to PHI 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 88%

    (3:17) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:43) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 11-K.Hodge to LA 37 for 7 yards (34-C.LeBlanc). Philadelphia challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass incomplete short right to 11-K.Hodge.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 13 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (9:28) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:25) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to LA 16, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 12 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:03) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to LA 33, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-J.Natson to LA 36 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by PHI-57-D.Alexander at LA 36. 57-D.Alexander to LA 36 for no gain (19-J.Natson).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 65%

    (1:13) 4-J.Elliott 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.