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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 30 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to LA 33, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-J.Natson to LA 36 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by PHI-57-D.Alexander at LA 36. 57-D.Alexander to LA 36 for no gain (19-J.Natson).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 85, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 43, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model