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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 91

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to PHI 41, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.61 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 91, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.74 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 48, worth -2.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP