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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 80

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to PHI 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.98 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 37, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP