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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 1-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to LA 10, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-J.Natson to LA 5 for -5 yards (36-De.Hall).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP