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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 33

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.81 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP