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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 22

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.81 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model