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NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2018-12-09 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

NYG
58.2%
WAS
41.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Mark Sanchez (WAS): -0.245 EPA/dropback in prior starts (WAS starting Mark Sanchez in place of Colt McCoy)
  • WAS offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 23
–
WAS 19
Projected margin: NYG by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NYG

Tae Davis LB Questionable Ankle
B.J. Goodson LB Questionable Neck

WAS

Ryan Anderson LB Out Hamstring
Tony Bergstrom G Out Knee
Colt McCoy QB Out Fibula
Matt Ioannidis DE Questionable Shin
Zach Brown LB Questionable Illness
Josh Doctson WR Questionable Hip
Chase Roullier C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 40
–
WAS 16

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:52 TD NYG (2:52) (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanchez pass short left intended for 17-M.Floyd INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Riley (96-K.Martin) at WAS 9. 35-C.Riley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – WAS 0
  • Q2 10:43 FG NYG (10:43) 2-A.Rosas 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 10 – WAS 0
  • Q2 08:54 TD NYG (8:54) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – WAS 0
  • Q2 06:26 TD NYG (6:26) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 87-S.Shepard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 23 – WAS 0
  • Q2 01:54 TD NYG (1:54) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 18-B.Fowler for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 30 – WAS 0
  • Q2 00:04 FG NYG (:04) 2-A.Rosas 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 34 – WAS 0
  • Q3 05:44 TD NYG (5:44) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 81-R.Shepard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 40 – WAS 0
  • Q4 12:04 TD WAS (12:04) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson scrambles right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 40 – WAS 6
  • Q4 09:02 TD WAS (9:02) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 40 – WAS 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:00) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to NYG 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-J.Davis to NYG 21 for 11 yards (51-S.Hamilton).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to WAS 38, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman. PENALTY on WAS-35-M.Nicholson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 38. Penalty on WAS-37-G.Stroman, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, declined.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 12 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:32) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYG 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-J.Davis to NYG 27 for 2 yards (34-B.Marshall).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to WAS 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 37-G.Stroman MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 31. 37-G.Stroman to WAS 31 for no gain (81-R.Shepard).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 12 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:47) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to NYG 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-J.Davis.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 11 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 25%

    (3:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to WAS 1, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:19) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-J.Davis to NYG 40 for 23 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%

    (10:43) 2-A.Rosas 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:05) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to NYG 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-41-D.Johnson.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:28) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYG 18, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-J.Davis to NYG 18 for no gain (35-M.Nicholson).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:09) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to NYG 27, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-J.Davis to NYG 42 for 15 yards (34-B.Marshall; 56-Z.Vigil).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:35) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to WAS 35, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman. PENALTY on WAS-35-M.Nicholson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 35.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:30) 5-T.Way punts 63 yards to NYG 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-35-M.Nicholson.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 88%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson scrambles up the middle to NYG 21 for 1 yard (72-K.Wynn; 59-L.Carter).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to WAS 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 37-G.Stroman to WAS 23 for -2 yards (81-R.Shepard).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to WAS 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.