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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 51

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to WAS 1, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.87 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model