Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 78

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 31

(1:09) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to NYG 27, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-J.Davis to NYG 42 for 15 yards (34-B.Marshall; 56-Z.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 78, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model