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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 17

New York Giants 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 2-A.Rosas 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model