Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 74

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

(10:32) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYG 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-J.Davis to NYG 27 for 2 yards (34-B.Marshall).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.38 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 74, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model