Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 69

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to WAS 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 37-G.Stroman MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 31. 37-G.Stroman to WAS 31 for no gain (81-R.Shepard).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.54 EP
57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model