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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 69

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:19) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-J.Davis to NYG 40 for 23 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.45 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 27, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model