Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NO offense: +0.263 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- QB edge to NO: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.168 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.388 EPA/dropback
- TB offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- TB defense: +0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- NO on 3 more days rest than TB
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 14
NO
TB
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:24 TD TB (12:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 84-C.Brate for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-24-V.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. NO 0 – TB 6
- Q2 07:09 FG NO (7:09) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – TB 7
- Q2 00:29 TD TB (:29) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-C.Brate for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [98-S.Rankins]. NO 3 – TB 13
- Q3 04:48 TD NO (4:48) 65-M.Ola reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees pass short left to 42-Z.Line for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – TB 14
- Q4 11:48 TD NO (11:48) 65-M.Ola reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 17 – TB 14
- Q4 07:33 TD NO (7:33) 22-M.Ingram up the middle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 24 – TB 14
- Q4 01:15 FG NO (1:15) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 28 – TB 14
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NO 4th & 15 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 33%
(8:23) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.
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Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 30%
(4:31) 9-B.Anger punts 37 yards to NO 11, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.
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Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(1:57) 6-T.Morstead punts 60 yards to TB 25, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-A.Humphries pushed ob at TB 46 for 21 yards (31-C.Banjo). PENALTY on TB-52-C.Lynch, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 35.
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Q2 TB 4th & 16 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 79%
(11:20) 5-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
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Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 12Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 96%
(7:09) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q3 TB 4th & 5 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%
(12:54) 5-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
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Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EPp(convert) 75%
(10:49) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.
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Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 54%
(7:23) 9-B.Anger punt is BLOCKED by 7-T.Hill, Center-89-G.Sanborn, RECOVERED by NO-27-D.Washington at TB 30. 27-D.Washington to TB 30 for no gain (52-C.Lynch).
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Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 99%
(11:48) 65-M.Ola reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 92Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(10:47) 9-B.Anger punts 62 yards to NO 30, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Lewis to NO 47 for 17 yards (85-B.Wilson).
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Q4 NO 4th & 14 at the 18 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%
(1:15) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.