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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 5-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.16 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model