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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 85

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 6-T.Morstead punts 60 yards to TB 25, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-A.Humphries pushed ob at TB 46 for 21 yards (31-C.Banjo). PENALTY on TB-52-C.Lynch, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.50 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model