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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 12

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.09 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP