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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.97 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP