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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 92

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – New Orleans Saints 18

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 9-B.Anger punts 62 yards to NO 30, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Lewis to NO 47 for 17 yards (85-B.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +1.06 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 92, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 50, worth -2.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model