4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 9-B.Anger punts 37 yards to NO 11, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.54 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model