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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Monday 2018-11-26 · 20:15 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

TEN
36.3%
HOU
63.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Deshaun Watson (HOU): +0.096 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TEN 20
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

TEN

Dane Cruikshank S Out Knee
David Fluellen RB Out Knee
Taywan Taylor WR Questionable Foot

HOU

Sammie Coates WR Questionable Illness
Duke Ejiofor LB Questionable Shoulder
Zach Fulton G Questionable Shoulder
Senio Kelemete G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 17
–
HOU 34

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:50 FG TEN (11:50) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – HOU 0
  • Q1 09:31 TD TEN (9:31) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – HOU 0
  • Q1 05:28 TD HOU (5:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 87-De.Thomas for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – HOU 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD HOU (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – HOU 13
  • Q2 09:36 TD HOU (9:36) 26-L.Miller right guard for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – HOU 20
  • Q2 00:01 FG HOU (:01) 7-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. TEN 10 – HOU 24
  • Q3 08:58 FG HOU (8:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. TEN 10 – HOU 27
  • Q3 00:22 TD TEN (:22) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 84-C.Davis for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – HOU 27
  • Q4 08:20 TD HOU (8:20) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 87-De.Thomas for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 17 – HOU 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 95%

    (11:50) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:19) 8-T.Daniel punts 50 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 31 for 3 yards (58-P.Kalambayi).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 15 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:06) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to HOU 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-D.Carter to HOU 40 for 25 yards (58-H.Landry).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (9:42) 88-L.Stocker up the middle to HOU 3 for no gain (41-Z.Cunningham; 55-B.McKinney).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 17 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (5:29) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-36-L.Sims.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 56%

    (1:56) 8-T.Daniel punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 49%

    (11:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at TEN 38 for 5 yards (25-A.Jackson).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 80%

    (8:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 36%

    (3:43) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 11 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:12) 8-T.Daniel punts 55 yards to TEN 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 49 for 16 yards (46-J.Weeks; 57-B.Scarlett).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:52) 8-T.Daniel punts 48 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 16 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:51) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to HOU 33, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-D.Carter to HOU 40 for 7 yards (56-S.Finch).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:54) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to HOU 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-D.Carter to HOU 26 for 5 yards (56-S.Finch).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 16 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 56%

    (1:52) 8-T.Daniel punts 31 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 17-C.Batson.