4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 10 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-36-L.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.27 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model