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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 10 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.36 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model