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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 88

Houston Texans 27 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 8-T.Daniel punts 55 yards to TEN 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 49 for 16 yards (46-J.Weeks; 57-B.Scarlett).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.04 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 88, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model