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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 29

Houston Texans 24 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.35 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP