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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 17 – Houston Texans 34

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to HOU 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-D.Carter to HOU 26 for 5 yards (56-S.Finch).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model