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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 10 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to HOU 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-D.Carter to HOU 40 for 25 yards (58-H.Landry).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.80 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model