4th & Data
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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
Thursday 2018-11-22 · 12:30 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CHI
55.8%
DET
44.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: +0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.147 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CHI 25
–
DET 22
Projected margin: CHI by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CHI

Aaron Lynch LB Out Concussion
Adam Shaheen TE Out Concussion
Mitchell Trubisky QB Doubtful right Shoulder

DET

Kerryon Johnson RB Out Knee
Marvin Jones WR Out Knee
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Shoulder
Bruce Ellington WR Questionable Back
Damon Harrison DT Questionable Shoulder
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Questionable Neck
Michael Roberts TE Questionable Shoulder
A'Shawn Robinson DT Questionable Ankle
Darius Slay CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 23
–
DET 16

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:10 TD DET (9:10) (Shotgun) 29-L.Blount left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – DET 6
  • Q2 04:03 FG CHI (4:03) 1-C.Parkey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – DET 7
  • Q2 00:44 TD CHI (:44) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short left to 33-T.Mizzell for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – DET 7
  • Q3 01:41 TD DET (1:41) 29-L.Blount left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – DET 13
  • Q4 13:46 TD CHI (13:46) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short right to 29-T.Cohen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 15 – DET 13
  • Q4 07:48 FG DET (7:48) 5-M.Prater 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. CHI 16 – DET 16
  • Q4 06:09 TD CHI (6:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 80-M.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson at DET 41. 39-E.Jackson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 22 – DET 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:21) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to CHI 14, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 28 for 14 yards (43-N.Bellore).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 56 yards to DET 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-T.Jones to DET 18 for 8 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 39%

    (7:49) 6-S.Martin punts 34 yards to CHI 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-21-D.Carey.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:30) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to DET 8, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-T.Jones to DET 16 for 8 yards (27-S.McManis).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:11) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to CHI 36, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 37 for 1 yard (26-D.Shead).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (10:11) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 43-N.Bellore to CHI 11 for 5 yards (59-D.Trevathan). CHI-20-P.Amukamara was injured during the play.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 89%

    (4:03) 1-C.Parkey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:22) 6-S.Martin punts 59 yards to CHI 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 35 for 14 yards (34-Z.Zenner).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 38 for -7 yards (26-D.Bush).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 56%

    (9:44) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 22 yards to DET 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:46) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to CHI 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen ran ob at CHI 46 for 17 yards (34-Z.Zenner).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 11 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:44) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.38 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (7:48) 5-M.Prater 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to DET 32, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-T.Jones to DET 41 for 9 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe).