Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 80

Detroit Lions 7 – Chicago Bears 3

(2:22) 6-S.Martin punts 59 yards to CHI 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 35 for 14 yards (34-Z.Zenner).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model