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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 47

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 6-S.Martin punts 34 yards to CHI 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-21-D.Carey.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.37 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model