Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 71

Detroit Lions 7 – Chicago Bears 9

(6:46) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to CHI 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen ran ob at CHI 46 for 17 yards (34-Z.Zenner).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.12 EP
67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model