4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 55

Detroit Lions 7 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 38 for -7 yards (26-D.Bush).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.40 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -0.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model