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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 66

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 56 yards to DET 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-T.Jones to DET 18 for 8 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.69 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP