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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 40

Chicago Bears 9 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 22 yards to DET 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.86 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP