4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2018-11-11 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

JAX
31.4%
IND
68.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Andrew Luck (IND) +0.113 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.035 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND offense: +0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 20
–
IND 24
Projected margin: IND by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

JAX

A.J. Bouye CB Out Calf
Quenton Meeks CB Out Knee
Eli Ankou DT Doubtful Calf
David Grinnage TE Questionable Knee
Lerentee McCray DE Questionable Hamstring
James O'Shaughnessy TE Questionable Hip
Telvin Smith LB Questionable Shoulder

IND

Ryan Hewitt TE Out Ankle
Michael Mitchell S Out Calf
Erik Swoope TE Out Knee
Denzelle Good T Questionable Illness
Kemoko Turay DE Questionable Neck
Ryan Grant WR Questionable Ankle
Nate Hairston CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 26
–
IND 29

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:36 TD IND (11:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 03:10 TD JAX (3:10) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 10-D.Moncrief for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – IND 7
  • Q1 00:02 TD IND (:02) 85-E.Ebron left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – IND 13
  • Q2 09:24 TD IND (9:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 85-E.Ebron for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – IND 20
  • Q2 05:57 TD JAX (5:57) 69-T.Shatley reported in as eligible. 27-L.Fournette right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – IND 21
  • Q2 01:50 TD IND (1:50) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. JAX 13 – IND 27
  • Q2 00:09 FG JAX (:09) 4-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 16 – IND 29
  • Q3 06:29 TD JAX (6:29) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 27-L.Fournette for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 22 – IND 29
  • Q4 04:08 FG JAX (4:08) 4-J.Lambo 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 26 – IND 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to IND 20, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:53) 2-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to JAX 2, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 3 for 1 yard (26-C.Geathers; 52-N.Goode).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to IND 8, Center-45-M.Overton. 80-C.Rogers to IND 14 for 6 yards (17-D.Chark).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (:09) 4-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 78%

    (10:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-L.Cooke pass short left to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy to IND 26 for 4 yards (50-A.Walker). Indianapolis challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:43) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-36-C.Moore. PENALTY on IND-44-Z.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 29.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 71%

    (1:02) 4-J.Lambo 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%

    (11:15) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to IND 9, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (8:26) 2-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to JAX 41, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 37 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 64%

    (4:08) 4-J.Lambo 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 71%

    (2:58) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.