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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to IND 8, Center-45-M.Overton. 80-C.Rogers to IND 14 for 6 yards (17-D.Chark).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model