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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Indianapolis Colts 29

What Actually Happened

(10:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-L.Cooke pass short left to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy to IND 26 for 4 yards (50-A.Walker). Indianapolis challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.32 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model