Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 65

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(8:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to IND 20, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.96 EP
67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model