Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 29 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-36-C.Moore. PENALTY on IND-44-Z.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model