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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 – Indianapolis Colts 29

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to IND 9, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.24 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 51, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model