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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 54

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 2-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to JAX 2, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 3 for 1 yard (26-C.Geathers; 52-N.Goode).

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.99 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model