CHI @ BUF — 4th & Data

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HC Matt Nagy

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HC Sean McDermott

Sunday 2018-11-04 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread -10.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

CHI

81.2%

BUF

18.8%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

Nathan Peterman (BUF): -0.792 EPA/dropback in prior starts (BUF starting Nathan Peterman in place of Derek Anderson)
BUF offense: -0.313 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
CHI offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
CHI defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
BUF defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 25

–

BUF 13

Projected margin: CHI by 12 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

CHI

Ben Braunecker TE Out Concussion

Kyle Long G Out Foot

Bilal Nichols DT Questionable Knee

Khalil Mack LB Questionable Ankle

Allen Robinson WR Questionable Groin

BUF

Trent Murphy DE Out Knee

Josh Allen QB Out right Elbow

Derek Anderson QB Questionable Concussion

Tremaine Edmunds LB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 41

–

BUF 9

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 13:06 TD CHI (13:06) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – BUF 0
Q2 07:21 TD CHI (7:21) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short right to 80-J.Croom to CHI 34 for no gain (39-E.Jackson). FUMBLES (39-E.Jackson), RECOVERED by CHI-39-E.Jackson at CHI 35. 39-E.Jackson for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at CHI 35. CHI 13 – BUF 0
Q2 03:38 TD CHI (3:38) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short right intended for 11-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 94-L.Floyd (23-K.Fuller) at BUF 19. 94-L.Floyd for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Receiver and coverage at BUF 18 prior to INT. CHI 20 – BUF 0
Q2 00:49 TD CHI (:49) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard right guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 27 – BUF 0
Q3 11:06 FG BUF (11:06) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. CHI 28 – BUF 3
Q3 08:16 FG CHI (8:16) 1-C.Parkey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 31 – BUF 3
Q4 13:38 FG CHI (13:38) 1-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 34 – BUF 3
Q4 05:43 TD BUF (5:43) 2-N.Peterman up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 34 – BUF 9
Q4 04:40 TD CHI (4:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 80-T.Burton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at BUF 1. CHI 40 – BUF 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CHI 4th & 14 at the 41

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 44%

(10:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 23 yards to BUF 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.
Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(7:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to CHI 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 27 for 12 yards (42-P.DiMarco). PENALTY on CHI-27-S.McManis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 27.
Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 49

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 25%

(2:41) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to BUF 11, impetus ends at BUF 2, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush. Punt credited as 47 yds. (to spot of first touch by J.Bellamy).
Q1 BUF 4th & 12 at the 91

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(1:08) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to CHI 48, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 48 for no gain (44-D.Lacey). PENALTY on BUF-82-L.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 48.
Q2 BUF 4th & 12 at the 45

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 34%

(10:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 34 yards to CHI 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.
Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(9:18) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to BUF 46, Center-48-P.Scales. 23-M.Hyde to CHI 49 for 5 yards (48-P.Scales).
Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 41

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 44%

(5:08) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 30 yards to BUF 11, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.
Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 85%

(11:06) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

(8:16) 1-C.Parkey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(7:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 18 yards to BUF 46, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 33

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 61% p(FG) 66%

(5:13) 2-N.Peterman up the middle to CHI 32 for 1 yard (91-E.Goldman).
Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 31

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 71%

(2:36) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass incomplete deep left to 13-K.Benjamin (38-A.Amos). Receiver and coverage in front corner of end zone.
Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(:29) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to BUF 5, Center-48-P.Scales. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at BUF 13 for 8 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe).
Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 27

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 79%

(13:38) 1-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q4 BUF 4th & 16 at the 31 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP

p(convert) 19% p(FG) 71%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman sacked at CHI 40 for -9 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris).