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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 45

Buffalo Bills 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 34 yards to CHI 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.91 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model