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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 9 – Chicago Bears 41

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman sacked at CHI 40 for -9 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 19% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.99 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP