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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 33

Buffalo Bills 3 – Chicago Bears 31

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 2-N.Peterman up the middle to CHI 32 for 1 yard (91-E.Goldman).

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.90 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model