4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 85

Chicago Bears 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to BUF 46, Center-48-P.Scales. 23-M.Hyde to CHI 49 for 5 yards (48-P.Scales).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.86 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 85, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 43, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model