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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 5

Chicago Bears 28 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 1-C.Parkey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +3.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.13 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 5, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP