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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 49

Chicago Bears 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to BUF 11, impetus ends at BUF 2, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush. Punt credited as 47 yds. (to spot of first touch by J.Bellamy).

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.88 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP